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ARC OxTV Digital Health theme lead, Professor John Powell joins the NIHR college of senior research leaders.
Impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life: an OpenSAFELY population cohort study using patient-reported outcome measures (OpenPROMPT)
Background: Long COVID is a major problem affecting patient health, the health service, and the workforce. To optimise the design of future interventions against COVID-19, and to better plan and allocate health resources, it is critical to quantify the health and economic burden of this novel condition. We aimed to evaluate and estimate the differences in health impacts of long COVID across sociodemographic categories and quantify this in Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), widely used measures across health systems. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we utilised OpenPROMPT, a UK cohort study measuring the impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). OpenPROMPT invited responses to Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) using a smartphone application and recruited between November 2022 and October 2023. We used the validated EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaire with the UK Value Set to develop disutility scores (1-utility) for respondents with and without Long COVID using linear mixed models, and we calculated subsequent Quality-Adjusted Life-Months (QALMs) for long COVID. Findings: The total OpenPROMPT cohort consisted of 7575 individuals who consented to data collection, with which we used data from 6070 participants who completed a baseline research questionnaire where 24.6% self-reported long COVID. In multivariable regressions, long COVID had a consistent impact on HRQoL, showing a higher likelihood or odds of reporting loss in quality-of-life (Odds Ratio (OR): 4.7, 95% CI: 3.72–5.93) compared with people who did not report long COVID. Reporting a disability was the largest predictor of losses of HRQoL (OR: 17.7, 95% CI: 10.37–30.33) across survey responses. Self-reported long COVID was associated with an 0.37 QALM loss. Interpretation: We found substantial impacts on quality-of-life due to long COVID, representing a major burden on patients and the health service. We highlight the need for continued support and research for long COVID, as HRQoL scores compared unfavourably to patients with conditions such as multiple sclerosis, heart failure, and renal disease. Funding: This research was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (OpenPROMPT: COV-LT2-0073).
Trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists for psychosis: protocol for a living systematic review and meta-analysis of human and non-human studies.
BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to develop more effective and safer antipsychotics beyond dopamine 2 receptor antagonists. An emerging and promising approach is TAAR1 agonism. Therefore, we will conduct a living systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize and triangulate the evidence from preclinical animal experiments and clinical studies on the efficacy, safety, and underlying mechanism of action of TAAR1 agonism for psychosis. METHODS: Independent searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases to identify clinical and animal experimental studies comparing TAAR1 agonists with licensed antipsychotics or other control conditions in individuals with psychosis or animal models for psychosis, respectively. The primary outcomes will be overall psychotic symptoms and their behavioural proxies in animals. Secondary outcomes will include side effects and neurobiological measures. Two independent reviewers will conduct study selection, data extraction using predefined forms, and risk of bias assessment using suitable tools based on the study design. Ontologies will be developed to facilitate study identification and data extraction. Data from clinical and animal studies will be synthesized separately using random-effects meta-analysis if appropriate, or synthesis without meta-analysis. Study characteristics will be investigated as potential sources of heterogeneity. Confidence in the evidence for each outcome and source of evidence will be evaluated, considering the summary of the association, potential concerns regarding internal and external validity, and reporting biases. When multiple sources of evidence are available for an outcome, an overall conclusion will be drawn in a triangulation meeting involving a multidisciplinary team of experts. We plan trimonthly updates of the review, and any modifications in the protocol will be documented. The review will be co-produced by multiple stakeholders aiming to produce impactful and relevant results and bridge the gap between preclinical and clinical research on psychosis. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO-ID: CRD42023451628.
USING ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS TO FACILITATE PRECISION PSYCHIATRY.
The use of clinical prediction models to produce individualised risk estimates can facilitate the implementation of precision psychiatry. As a source of data from large, clinically representative patient samples, electronic health records (EHRs) provide a platform to develop and validate clinical prediction models, as well as potentially implementing them in routine clinical care. The present review describes promising use cases for the application of precision psychiatry to EHR data and considers their performance in terms of discrimination (ability to separate individuals with and without the outcome) and calibration (extent to which predicted risk estimates correspond to observed outcomes), as well as their potential clinical utility (weighing benefits and costs associated with the model compared to different approaches across different assumptions of the number-needed-to-test). We review four externally validated clinical prediction models designed to predict, respectively: psychosis onset, psychotic relapse, cardiometabolic morbidity, and suicide risk. We then discuss the prospects for clinically implementing these models, and the potential added value of integrating data from evidence syntheses, standardised psychometric assessments, and biological data into EHRs. Clinical prediction models can utilise routinely collected EHR data in an innovative way, representing a unique opportunity to inform real-world clinical decision making. Combining data from other sources (e.g. meta-analyses) or enhancing EHR data with information from research studies (clinical and biomarker data) may enhance our abilities to improve performance of clinical prediction models.
Preferences on Governance Models for Mental Health Data: Qualitative Study With Young People.
BackgroundImproving access to mental health data to accelerate research and improve mental health outcomes is a potentially achievable goal given the substantial data that can now be collected from mobile devices. Smartphones can provide a useful mechanism for collecting mental health data from young people, especially as their use is relatively ubiquitous in high-resource settings such as the United Kingdom and they have a high capacity to collect active and passive data. This raises the interesting opportunity to establish a large bank of mental health data from young people that could be accessed by researchers worldwide, but it is important to clarify how to ensure that this is done in an appropriate manner aligned with the values of young people.ObjectiveIn this study, we discussed the preferences of young people in the United Kingdom regarding the governance, sharing, and use of their mental health data with the establishment of a global data bank in mind. We aimed to determine whether young people want and feel safe to share their mental health data; if so, with whom; and their preferences in doing so.MethodsYoung people (N=46) were provided with 2 modules of educational material about data governance models and background in scientific research. We then conducted 2-hour web-based group sessions using a deliberative democracy methodology to reach a consensus where possible. Findings were analyzed using the framework method.ResultsYoung people were generally enthusiastic about contributing data to mental health research. They believed that broader availability of mental health data could be used to discover what improves or worsens mental health and develop new services to support young people. However, this enthusiasm came with many concerns and caveats, including distributed control of access to ensure appropriate use, distributed power, and data management that included diverse representation and sufficient ethical training for applicants and data managers.ConclusionsAlthough it is feasible to use smartphones to collect mental health data from young people in the United Kingdom, it is essential to carefully consider the parameters of such a data bank. Addressing and embedding young people's preferences, including the need for robust procedures regarding how their data are managed, stored, and accessed, will set a solid foundation for establishing any global data bank.
Risk of bleeding amongst warfarin and direct oral anticoagulant users prescribed immediate antibiotics for respiratory tract infection: Cohort study.
PURPOSE: Incidence of bleeding amongst warfarin and direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) users is greater following a respiratory tract infection (RTI). It is unclear whether immediate antibiotics modify this association. We estimated the risk of bleeding amongst warfarin and DOAC users with RTI by antibiotic treatment. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD for adults in England prescribed warfarin or a DOAC, who sought primary care for an RTI between 1st January 2011 and 31st December 2019. Outcomes were major bleeding (hospital admission for intracranial or gastrointestinal bleeding), and non-major bleeding (hospital admission or General Practice consult for epistaxis, haemoptysis, or haematuria). Cox models derived hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each outcome, adjusting for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: Of 14 817 warfarin and DOAC users consulting for an RTI, 8768 (59%) were prescribed immediate antibiotics and 6049 (41%) were not. Approximately 49% were female, and median age was 76 years. Antibiotics were associated with reduced risk of major bleeding (adjusted HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.58). This was consistent across several sensitivity analyses. Antibiotics were also associated with a reduced risk of non-major bleeding (adjusted HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Immediate antibiotics were associated with reduced risk of bleeding amongst warfarin and DOAC users with an RTI. Further work is needed to understand mechanisms and confirm whether a lower threshold for antibiotic use for RTI in this population may be beneficial.
Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial.
INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN72104369.
Evaluating the efficacy and mechanisms of a ketogenic diet as adjunctive treatment for people with treatment-resistant depression: A protocol for a randomised controlled trial.
BACKGROUND: One-third of people with depression do not respond to antidepressants, and, after two adequate courses of antidepressants, are classified as having treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Some case reports suggest that ketogenic diets (KDs) may improve some mental illnesses, and preclinical data indicate that KDs can influence brain reward signalling, anhedonia, cortisol, and gut microbiome which are associated with depression. To date, no trials have examined the clinical effect of a KD on TRD. METHODS: This is a proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial to investigate the efficacy of a six-week programme of weekly dietitian counselling plus provision of KD meals, compared with an intervention involving similar dietetic contact time and promoting a healthy diet with increased vegetable consumption and reduction in saturated fat, plus food vouchers to purchase healthier items. At 12 weeks we will assess whether participants have continued to follow the assigned diet. The primary outcome is the difference between groups in the change in Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score from baseline to 6 weeks. PHQ-9 will be measured at weeks 2, 4, 6 and 12. The secondary outcomes are the differences between groups in the change in remission of depression, change in anxiety score, functioning ability, quality of life, cognitive performance, reward sensitivity, and anhedonia from baseline to 6 and 12 weeks. We will also assess whether changes in reward sensitivity, anhedonia, cortisol awakening response and gut microbiome may explain any changes in depression severity. DISCUSSION: This study will test whether a ketogenic diet is an effective intervention to reduce the severity of depression, anxiety and improve quality of life and functioning ability for people with treatment-resistant depression.
Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction
QRISK algorithms use data from millions of people to help clinicians identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Here, we derive and externally validate a new algorithm, which we have named QR4, that incorporates novel risk factors to estimate 10-year CVD risk separately for men and women. Health data from 9.98 million and 6.79 million adults from the United Kingdom were used for derivation and validation of the algorithm, respectively. Cause-specific Cox models were used to develop models to predict CVD risk, and the performance of QR4 was compared with version 3 of QRISK, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores. We identified seven novel risk factors in models for both men and women (brain cancer, lung cancer, Down syndrome, blood cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, oral cancer and learning disability) and two additional novel risk factors in women (pre-eclampsia and postnatal depression). On external validation, QR4 had a higher C statistic than QRISK3 in both women (0.835 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.833–0.837) and 0.831 (95% CI, 0.829–0.832) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively) and men (0.814 (95% CI, 0.812–0.816) and 0.812 (95% CI, 0.810–0.814) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively). QR4 was also more accurate than the ASCVD and SCORE2 risk scores in both men and women. The QR4 risk score identifies new risk groups and provides superior CVD risk prediction in the United Kingdom compared with other international scoring systems for CVD risk.
Early outcomes of referrals to the English National Health Service Digital Weight Management Programme.
OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to assess participant weight change for the English National Health Service (NHS) Digital Weight Management Programme, the first such digital intervention to achieve population coverage. METHODS: A service evaluation was used to assess intervention effectiveness for adults with obesity and a diagnosis of hypertension and/or diabetes, between April 2021 and March 2022, using prospectively collected, national service-level data in England. RESULTS: Of the 63,937 referrals made from general practices, within the time period, 31,861 (50%) chose to take up the 12-week Programme. There were 31,718 participants who had time to finish the Programme; of those, 14,268 completed the Programme (defined as attending ≥60%), a 45% completion rate. The mean weight change for those who had time to finish the Programme was -2.2 kg (95% CI: -2.25 to -2.16), for those who completed it was -3.9 kg (95% CI: -3.99 to -3.84), and for those who had time to finish the Programme but did not complete it was -0.74 kg (95% CI: -0.79 to -0.70). CONCLUSIONS: The NHS Digital Weight Management Programme is effective at achieving clinically meaningful weight loss. The outcomes compare favorably to web-based weight management interventions tested in randomized trials and those delivered as face-to-face interventions, and results suggest that the approach may, with increased participation, bring population-level benefits.
IntEgrating smoking cessation treAtment into usual online psychological care for people with common mEntal illness: Protocol for an online randomised feasibility and pilot study (ESCAPE digital).
BACKGROUND: In the UK, smoking prevalence in people with depression (34%) and anxiety (29%) is more than double that of the general population (13%). People who stop smoking improve their mental health with comparable effect sizes found for antidepressants. In England, online psychological therapy is a standard treatment for depression and anxiety. Online therapy is an acceptable setting for smoking cessation support; however, integrated smoking and mental health support is not available. This novel study aims to assess the acceptability and feasibility of an online smoking cessation intervention, and trial procedures, offered alongside online mental health treatment as it offers increased reach to people with common mental health difficulties who smoke. METHODS: A two-armed; Intervention (Integrated SilverCloud smoking cessation support) and control group (SilverCloud usual care), pragmatic, randomised controlled feasibility trial. We aim to recruit 500 adult smokers eligible for online mental health treatment. Follow-up will be conducted at 3-months and 6-months. We will assess the acceptability and feasibility of the trial procedures (i.e., recruitment, data completeness, self-reported acceptability and satisfaction) and the intervention (i.e., self-reported quit attempt, engagement with the smoking cessation and mental health programs, smoking cessation medicine and e-cigarette use, self-reported acceptability and satisfaction) and pilot clinical outcomes (i.e., biologically validated smoking abstinence, anxiety, depression, quality of health). CONCLUSION: If the Trial is successful, a randomised controlled effectiveness trial will follow to examine whether integrated smoking cessation and mental health treatment increases smoking abstinence and improves depression and anxiety compared to usual care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN10612149 (https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN10612149), 02/02/2023.
Using evidence-based co-design to develop a hybrid delivered exercise intervention that aims to increase confidence to exercise in people with haemophilia.
INTRODUCTION: Due to advances in treatments, people with haemophilia (PWH) are living longer. They are not as active as the general population due to joint damage and lack confidence to be active due to concerns about further bleeds and pain. There is a need to facilitate healthy aging through promotion of physical activity (PA) and exercise. Changing patient beliefs and increasing physical literacy and confidence to move are thought to be key to helping PWH become more active. AIM: This paper describes the development of an exercise and behaviour change intervention to improve confidence to exercise in PWH. METHODS: The 4-stage Medical Research Council framework for complex intervention development was used. RESULTS: Stakeholders included 17 PWH and 7 physiotherapists working in haemophilia. Seven online focus group meetings were held. The final intervention is a hybrid 12-week physiotherapist led progressive exercise programme. Classes are 45 min including Pilates, High intensity interval training and balance elements, together with discussion sessions focusing on PA recommendations, the types and benefits of different exercise styles and the effects of PA, together with the effects of aging for PWH. The COM-B model of behaviour change was used to develop the intervention. CONCLUSION: Co-design helps to produce an intervention that understands the stakeholders needs. Through this process the intervention developed to incorporate not only increasing PA but also confidence to exercise. The use of behaviour change theory identified the behaviour techniques included in the intervention and aims to increase physical literacy in this population.
Trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists for psychosis: protocol for a living systematic review and meta-analysis of human and non-human studies.
BackgroundThere is an urgent need to develop more effective and safer antipsychotics beyond dopamine 2 receptor antagonists. An emerging and promising approach is TAAR1 agonism. Therefore, we will conduct a living systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize and triangulate the evidence from preclinical animal experiments and clinical studies on the efficacy, safety, and underlying mechanism of action of TAAR1 agonism for psychosis.MethodsIndependent searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases to identify clinical and animal experimental studies comparing TAAR1 agonists with licensed antipsychotics or other control conditions in individuals with psychosis or animal models for psychosis, respectively. The primary outcomes will be overall psychotic symptoms and their behavioural proxies in animals. Secondary outcomes will include side effects and neurobiological measures. Two independent reviewers will conduct study selection, data extraction using predefined forms, and risk of bias assessment using suitable tools based on the study design. Ontologies will be developed to facilitate study identification and data extraction. Data from clinical and animal studies will be synthesized separately using random-effects meta-analysis if appropriate, or synthesis without meta-analysis. Study characteristics will be investigated as potential sources of heterogeneity. Confidence in the evidence for each outcome and source of evidence will be evaluated, considering the summary of the association, potential concerns regarding internal and external validity, and reporting biases. When multiple sources of evidence are available for an outcome, an overall conclusion will be drawn in a triangulation meeting involving a multidisciplinary team of experts. We plan trimonthly updates of the review, and any modifications in the protocol will be documented. The review will be co-produced by multiple stakeholders aiming to produce impactful and relevant results and bridge the gap between preclinical and clinical research on psychosis.Protocol registrationPROSPERO-ID: CRD42023451628.
Communication in Primary Healthcare: A State-of-the-Art Literature Review of Conversation-Analytic Research
We report the first state-of-the-art review of conversation-analytic (CA) research on communication in primary healthcare. We conducted a systematic search across multiple bibliographic databases and specialist sources and employed backward and forward citation tracking. We included 177 empirical studies spanning four decades of research and 16 different countries/health systems, with data in 17 languages. The majority of studies originated in United States and United Kingdom and focused on medical visits between physicians and adult patients. We generated three broad research themes in order to synthesize the study findings: managing agendas, managing participation, and managing authority. We characterize the state-of-the-art for each theme, illustrating the progression of the work and making comparisons across different languages and health systems, where possible. We consider practical applications of the findings, reflect on the state of current knowledge, and suggest some directions for future research. Data reported are in multiple languages.
Towards agreement amongst parents, teachers and children on perceived psychopathology in children in a Kenyan socio-cultural context: a cross-sectional study.
BACKGROUND: Our objective was to determine levels of agreement between parents, teachers and children on mental symptoms in the children. Teachers, children and parents constitute the TRIAD in the perception of psychopathology in children. Analyzing the perceptions of psychopathology from the perspectives of parents, teachers, and children is essential for a comprehensive understanding of a child's mental health. METHODS: We identified 195 participants across ten randomly sampled primary schools in South East Kenya. Potential participants were randomly selected and a sampling interval calculated to determine the study participants. The children (Class 5-8; aged 11-14) completed the Youth Self-Report (YSR) scale, the parents the Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) on their children and the teachers completed the Teachers Rating Form (TRF) on the children. Only parents and teachers who gave consent as well as children who gave assent were included in the study. Analysis was conducted using Stata 14.1 and Pearson correlation coefficients used to calculate the correlations between CBCL, YSR and TRF. RESULTS: The children agreed least with the parents and more with the teachers. There was a greater agreement between the children and their teachers in 5 (2 internalizing disorders and 3 externalizing disorders) out of the 8 conditions. Children and parents agreed only on somatic disorders and conduct disorders. YSR mean scores were significantly lower than those for CBCL for all problem scales. Mean scores of TRF and YSR were comparable in the majority of the problems measured. CONCLUSION: We suggest broad-based psychoeducation to include children, parents/guardians and teachers to enhance shared awareness of psychopathology and uptake of treatment and for the consideration of an integrated mental health system.
Study protocol for a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of comparing enhanced acceptance and commitment therapy plus (+) added to usual aftercare versus usual aftercare only, in patients living with or beyond cancer: SUrvivors' Rehabilitation Evaluation after CANcer (SURECAN) trial.
BACKGROUND: Two million people in the UK are living with or beyond cancer and a third of them report poor quality of life (QoL) due to problems such as fatigue, fear of cancer recurrence, and concerns about returning to work. We aimed to develop and evaluate an intervention based on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), suited to address the concerns of cancer survivors and in improving their QoL. We also recognise the importance of exercise and vocational activity on QoL and therefore will integrate options for physical activity and return to work/vocational support, thus ACT Plus (+). METHODS: We will conduct a multi-centre, pragmatic, theory driven, randomised controlled trial. We will assess whether ACT+ including usual aftercare (intervention) is more effective and cost-effective than usual aftercare alone (control). The primary outcome is QoL of participants living with or beyond cancer measured using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy: General scale (FACT-G) at 52 weeks. We will recruit 344 participants identified from secondary care sites who have completed hospital-based treatment for cancer with curative intent, with low QoL (determined by the FACT-G) and randomise with an allocation ratio of 1:1 to the intervention or control. The intervention (ACT+) will be delivered by NHS Talking Therapies, specialist services, and cancer charities. The intervention consists of up to eight sessions at weekly or fortnightly intervals using different modalities of delivery to suit individual needs, i.e. face-to-face sessions, over the phone or skype. DISCUSSION: To date, there have been no robust trials reporting both clinical and cost-effectiveness of an ACT based intervention for people with low QoL after curative cancer treatment in the UK. We will provide high quality evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adding ACT+ to usual aftercare provided by the NHS. If shown to be effective and cost-effective then commissioners, providers and cancer charities will know how to improve QoL in cancer survivors and their families. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: ISRCTN67900293 . Registered on 09 December 2019. All items from the World Health Organization Trial Registration Data Set for this protocol can be found in Additional file 2 Table S1.
The association between restricted activity and patient outcomes in older adults: systematic literature review and meta-analysis.
BACKGROUND: Restricted activity is a potential early marker of declining health in older adults. Previous studies of this association with patient outcomes have been inconclusive. This review aimed to evaluate the extent to which restricted activity is associated with decline in health. METHODS: A search was conducted for studies including people over 65 years old which investigated the association between measures of restricted activity and hospitalisation, cognitive decline, and mortality. Following data extraction by two reviewers, eligible studies were summarised using Inverse Variance Heterogeneity meta-analysis. RESULTS: The search identified 8,434 unique publications, with 11 eligible studies. Three measures of restricted activity were identified: bed rest, restricted movement, and dependency for activities of daily living (ADL). Three studies looked at hospitalisations, with two finding a significant association with bed rest or restricted movement and one showing no evidence of an association. Restricted activity was associated with a significant increase in mortality across all three measures (bed rest odds ratio [OR] 6.34, 95%CI 2.51-16.02, I2 = 76%; restricted movement OR 5.38 95%CI 2.60-11.13, I2 = 69%; general ADL dependency OR 4.65 95%CI 2.25-9.26, I2 = 84%). The significant heterogeneity observed could not be explained by restricting the analysis by length of follow-up, or measure of restricted activity. No meta-analysis was conducted on the limited evidence for cognitive decline outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Limited studies have considered the prognostic value of restricted activity in terms of predicting future declining health. Current evidence suggests restricted activity is associated with hospitalisation and mortality, and therefore could identify a group for whom early intervention might be possible.
Mental and physical health morbidity among people in prisons: an umbrella review.
BACKGROUND: People who experience incarceration are characterised by poor health profiles. Clarification of the disease burden in the prison population can inform service and policy development. We aimed to synthesise and assess the evidence regarding the epidemiology of mental and physical health conditions among people in prisons worldwide. METHODS: In this umbrella review, five bibliographic databases (Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, and Global Health) were systematically searched from inception to identify meta-analyses published up to Oct 31, 2023, which examined the prevalence or incidence of mental and physical health conditions in general prison populations. We excluded meta-analyses that examined health conditions in selected or clinical prison populations. Prevalence data were extracted from published reports and study authors were contacted for additional information. Estimates were synthesised and stratified by sex, age, and country income level. The robustness of the findings was assessed in terms of heterogeneity, excess significance bias, small-study effects, and review quality. The study protocol was pre-registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023404827. FINDINGS: Our search of the literature yielded 1909 records eligible for screening. 1736 articles were excluded and 173 full-text reports were examined for eligibility. 144 articles were then excluded due to not meeting inclusion criteria, which resulted in 29 meta-analyses eligible for inclusion. 12 of these were further excluded because they examined the same health condition. We included data from 17 meta-analyses published between 2002 and 2023. In adult men and women combined, the 6-month prevalence was 11·4% (95% CI 9·9-12·8) for major depression, 9·8% (6·8-13·2) for post-traumatic stress disorder, and 3·7% (3·2-4·1) for psychotic illness. On arrival to prison, 23·8% (95% CI 21·0-26·7) of people met diagnostic criteria for alcohol use disorder and 38·9% (31·5-46·2) for drug use disorder. Half of those with major depression or psychotic illness had a comorbid substance use disorder. Infectious diseases were also common; 17·7% (95% CI 15·0-20·7) of people were antibody-positive for hepatitis C virus, with lower estimates (ranging between 2·6% and 5·2%) found for hepatitis B virus, HIV, and tuberculosis. Meta-regression analyses indicated significant differences in prevalence by sex and country income level, albeit not consistent across health conditions. The burden of non-communicable chronic diseases was only examined in adults aged 50 years and older. Overall, the quality of the evidence was limited by high heterogeneity and small-study effects. INTERPRETATION: People in prisons have a specific pattern of morbidity that represents an opportunity for public health to address. In particular, integrating prison health within the national public health system, adequately resourcing primary care and mental health services, and improving linkage with post-release health services could affect public health and safety. Population-based longitudinal studies are needed to clarify the extent to which incarceration affects health. FUNDING: Research Foundation-Flanders, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health.